On Monday (November 17th), US crude oil fluctuated slightly, trading at $59.50 per barrel, failing to continue Friday's upward momentum. Fundamentally, the expansion of global energy demand continues to outpace the deployment of alternative energy sources, making it difficult for crude oil to be completely replaced for the next decade or more. In the long term, the substitution paths for aviation fuel and the petrochemical industry remain limited by technological, cost, and economies of scale bottlenecks, while the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology further increases computing power consumption, pushing up overall energy demand. The "stabilizer" status of traditional oil products in the energy system is unlikely to be shaken in the short term.

In the short term, geopolitical shocks act as a catalyst for price fluctuations. The Ukrainian drone attack on Black Sea oil ports this week has refocused market attention on the vulnerability of Russian crude oil export routes. Although geopolitical events can push up prices in the short term, institutional forecasts indicate a relatively loose global supply situation in the future. In particular, both OPEC and the IEA believe that supply and demand will turn into a significant surplus next year, making it difficult for oil prices to escape downward pressure. Market reactions also indicate that investors are less sensitive to single geopolitical events, focusing more on long-term supply and demand logic rather than localized shocks.

From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil is in a clearly weak structure, but there is a short-term technical rebound potential. WTI prices have been consistently trading below the nine-day exponential moving average recently, indicating that bearish forces still dominate. However, the price action has formed a support zone around $59, with consecutive lower shadows reflecting gradually increasing buying pressure at lower levels.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI indicator remains in the low range around 40, not yet in extreme oversold territory, suggesting that short-term weakness and fluctuations are likely to continue. If prices can break through the nine-day moving average, the rebound target may be close to the $62-$63 range. However, if prices fall below $59, the weak structure will be further strengthened, increasing the risk of testing the $57 support level. Today: Short at $59.50, stop loss: $62.00, target $57.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.