On Tuesday (November 18), in Asian markets, gold prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, declining by approximately 0.90%. Prices briefly dipped below $4,000/ounce before recovering slightly and are currently trading around $4,012. Expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed have further cooled, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly by 0.25%, reaching 99.54. A stronger dollar immediately makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies globally, naturally leading to a significant reduction in buying interest.

In the short term, the $4,000 level is precarious. If this week's September non-farm payroll data is unexpectedly strong, or if the Fed meeting minutes further reinforce a hawkish tone, gold prices are highly likely to test the $3,900-$3,950 support zone. However, in the medium to long term, gold bulls should not despair. The three strategic positive factors—central bank gold purchases, prolonged geopolitical conflicts, and a declining real interest rate cycle—are all present. Once the expectation of a December rate cut rises back above 50%, gold could stage a dramatic comeback.

Looking at the daily chart for spot gold, last week's recessionary risks helped international gold prices rise to around $4250. However, with the gradual decline in expectations of a Fed rate cut this week, gold has returned to the $4000 mark, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears will continue in the short term. Currently, the short-term moving averages are turning downwards, and the MACD indicator is struggling around the zero line, so limited movement is possible before the non-farm payroll data release.

Looking at the 4-hour chart for spot gold, after yesterday's rebound, prices fell rapidly, testing the $4000 support level. A relatively clear head and shoulders pattern has formed. However, given the continued positive fundamentals, further downside potential has been limited. The short-term moving averages are now in a bearish alignment, and the MACD indicator has crossed below the zero line again. Therefore, the recommended strategy may be to sell on rallies. Resistance: 4020-4030-4040; Support: 4005-3990-3980.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.