On Wednesday (March 25th) in Asian trading, US crude oil fell nearly 4%, trading around $88.80 per barrel. The recent significant pullback in the international crude oil market is primarily driven by the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East. The US has submitted a conflict resolution proposal to Iran containing approximately 15 points, while simultaneously pushing for a ceasefire agreement lasting about one month, creating space for subsequent negotiations. This development directly changed market expectations regarding the trajectory of the situation, leading to a concentrated correction of the risk premium accumulated due to the escalation of the conflict.

However, the market has not completely escaped uncertainty. The ceasefire agreement has a clear phased nature, and whether the negotiations can achieve substantial results remains highly uncertain. Meanwhile, the US's deployment of additional military forces to the Middle East has not stopped, which to some extent means that the situation remains in a state of "negotiation and bargaining." Market sentiment is shifting from "extreme risk aversion" to "cautious observation," and volatility may therefore remain at a high level.

From a daily chart perspective, crude oil prices have shown signs of a temporary top, with prices encountering resistance and falling back near previous highs. Momentum indicators are also weakening, indicating a significant decrease in upward momentum. Currently, prices are gradually entering a consolidation range, with significant resistance around $93, corresponding to previous sentiment highs; $83 forms key support and is also a key level separating bulls and bears. A decisive break below this level could open up further downside potential.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is consolidating at low levels, with prices retesting previous lows. Based on the primary and secondary trend, the subjective trend remains downward. The MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover below the zero line, indicating stronger bearish momentum. It is expected that crude oil will continue its downward trend today. Today's strategy: Short at 92.00, stop loss at 94.00, target 85.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.