On Wednesday (March 25) in early Asian trading, spot gold once again climbed above $4500 per ounce, as mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan pushed for a meeting between US and Iranian officials within the next 48 hours. If diplomatic efforts achieve a substantial breakthrough, even just facilitating a high-level meeting, it could quickly alleviate extreme market concerns about energy supplies, leading to a decline in oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, and lower US dollar and US Treasury yields. This could provide gold with a respite and a window for a rebound. If Trump's "15-point plan," which includes a ceasefire, nuclear issues, proxy forces, and shipping lanes, is put on the agenda, it will be a key catalyst for a shift in market sentiment.

On the other hand, if the current stalemate continues, or even if the military conflict escalates further, gold will face a more complex test. Persistently high oil prices will solidify and even fuel inflation expectations, forcing major central banks like the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. The "double high" environment of high interest rates and a high dollar will pose a formidable obstacle for gold. While its safe-haven appeal may provide temporary support during periods of extreme panic, it proves ineffective in countering the core contradiction of "high interest rates."

Looking at the 4-hour chart for spot gold, with the dollar index declining, gold prices finally rebounded strongly from their lows, successfully returning above 4550. However, it's too early to determine whether this is a localized recovery or a trend reversal. Currently, short-term moving averages are starting to turn upwards, providing support, and the MACD indicator is in a golden cross state, although still quite far from the zero line. Therefore, continued wide-range fluctuations in the near term cannot be ruled out.

Looking at the 1-hour chart for spot gold, prices rose during the Asian session in the early morning, reaching near the 4600 level, forming a relatively clear short-term rebound structure. The key lies in whether the European and American sessions can further open up upward space; otherwise, it will be difficult to maintain a fluctuating pattern. Currently, the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD indicator is also in a golden cross state, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage. Considering the recent volatile market conditions, it is still recommended to maintain a strategy of buying low and selling high. Resistance: 4575-4585-4600 Support: 4560-4550-4540

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.