US President Donald Trump issued his toughest statement yet on Truth Social on March 30, threatening that if the Strait of Hormuz is not " immediately Open for Business" and "if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached", the US will "completely obliterating" all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and its petroleum export hub, Kharg Island, and potentially even its desalination plants.

In response, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that if Iran fails to reach an agreement, it will face severe consequences, adding that the former Iranian leader is "no longer on this earth." She also noted that US-Iran negotiations "are continuing and going well."

Iran Rejects US 15-Point Plan, Denies Direct Negotiations

However, Tehran's stance is starkly different. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated earlier that day that Iran considered the 15-point plan proposed by the US to be excessive and unreasonable, and rejected it. The Iranian leadership also denied the existence of direct negotiations with the US and did not respond to Trump's claim of a "new regime."

This dual-track posture of "negotiating while threatening" reflects the high uncertainty of US-Iran interactions. Trump even mocked himself in the post, adding "which it probably will be"—hinting that he still holds expectations for a successful negotiation.

Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Lifeline, the New Epicenter of Global Energy

Kharg Island, targeted by Trump, is the absolute core of Iran's oil industry—about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports must be loaded here before passing through the Strait of Hormuz to the world, with an estimated daily loading capacity of up to 7 million barrels.

Trump previously revealed in an interview with the Financial Times that his "favorite option is to take Iran's oil," comparing it to the US military operation that took control of Venezuela's oil earlier this year. He said, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe not. We have a lot of options." Reuters reported that the US is evaluating the feasibility of sending ground troops to seize Kharg Island, but sources warned this would be a "highly risky" operation.

Oil Prices Surge Again, Brent Breaks $116

Following Trump's statement, the international oil market reacted immediately. In early Asian trading, Brent crude futures for May rose over 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel, heading for its largest single-month gain in history; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.

Since the US-Israeli coalition launched military strikes on Iran on February 28, oil prices have surged from their lows, previously peaking at $126 per barrel. Analysts warn that if Kharg Island is indeed destroyed, the shock to global oil supply will far exceed the current blockade of Hormuz, and oil prices could break historical highs.

Spain Closes Airspace, Cracks Appear in Allied Front

As tensions continue to escalate, Spain announced on March 30 that it is closing its airspace to US military aircraft participating in attacks on Iran. Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles stated, "We do not authorize the use of military bases or airspace for operations related to the war with Iran." This is the most direct confrontation between Spain and the Trump administration over the Iran issue.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to launch attacks on infrastructure in the Middle East, with Kuwait's water and power facilities having been affected. The latest tracking data from the Guardian shows that two Chinese cargo ships successfully made their second attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the 30th after turning back on Friday.

As the war in Iran enters its fifth week, negotiations, threats, and military operations are unfolding simultaneously, and the global energy market continues to fluctuate violently amidst high uncertainty.

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