On Wednesday (April 1st) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4674 per ounce. Gold prices plummeted 11.8% in March, nearing their worst monthly performance since October 2008. In just one month, gold went from being a safe-haven asset at the beginning of geopolitical conflicts to becoming a victim of high interest rates and inflation expectations, while market sentiment is swinging wildly with the Trump administration's "easing signals" regarding military action against Iran.

Gold is currently caught in a triple tug-of-war between "short-term sentiment-driven rebound vs. medium-term inflationary pressures vs. long-term bullish fundamentals." While the 11.8% monthly drop in March was record-breaking, it also largely released valuation pressures. If the US-Iran negotiations make substantial progress and the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming days, the decline in oil prices will quickly alleviate inflation expectations, and gold prices are expected to continue their rebound. Conversely, if the "escalation of conflict" warned by Hergé becomes a reality, safe-haven buying may lead to a more intense struggle with the high-interest-rate environment.

From the daily chart for spot gold, the price has stabilized above $4550, breaking through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the monthly high. It is oscillating upwards, supported by the 5-day moving average. The MACD indicator's red bars are gradually expanding, moving away from the weak zone below the zero line, and the RSI indicator has risen back into the strong zone. Although gold is in an upward trend, it shows signs of fatigue, encountering resistance below the 20-day moving average at $4800, and the risk of a pullback needs to be guarded against.

From the 4-hour chart for spot gold, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the US dollar index has declined rapidly, finally giving gold prices a chance to rebound. This morning, it successfully returned to above the $4700 level. Currently, the short-term moving averages have formed a bullish alignment again, and the MACD indicator has also formed a golden cross above the zero line. However, whether it can further open up upward space may depend on whether it can break through and hold the resistance at 4750. Resistance: 4680-4690-4700 Support: 4665-4650-4640.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.